Confidential · 10-Year Internal Business Plan · Lagos

Project IceGate

A power-adjacent, asset-heavy B2B cold-chain platform — storage, logistics and later inventory finance — engineered first around uptime and energy cost, scaling from a proven Lagos flagship to a national network.

<$10MFlagship capex
₦20–45KPallet / month
2,000–3,500Pallet positions · Y1
40,000–70,000Pallet positions · Y10
$135–220MRevenue run-rate · Y10
$1BEV stretch ambition
01 · Strategic Case

Infrastructure operator first

Warehouse uptime and energy economics are the foundation. Logistics is a core second service line — but fleet investment follows warehouse utilisation. Finance and processing are later-stage extensions, released only through decision gates.

Base case — the committed plan Prove the Lagos flagship by year 3: target occupancy reached, positive site EBITDA, verified temperature-compliance. Everything beyond — second Lagos sites, national hubs, inventory finance, processing partnerships — is gated upside.

🎯Vision

Nigeria's leading integrated cold-chain infrastructure company — connecting imports, processing, agriculture, food service, retail, pharmaceuticals and finance.

🧭Mission

Dependable, auditable, lower-cost temperature-controlled storage and logistics for B2B customers — Lagos first, then nationwide.

🏆Category leadership, defined

  • Largest formal multi-client pallet capacity in Lagos
  • Revenue leadership in QSR, supermarket & import lanes
  • Independently audited uptime & compliance

The real moat: power

Not merely a cold room — land control + company-controlled generation assets, with redundancy engineered before operations begin. Primary supply under documented related-party terms; independent backup generation; N+1 on critical refrigeration.

📍Two-site Lagos launch

Apapa hub — port-adjacent receipt, reefer-container handling, customs coordination, flagship warehouse.
Victoria Island satellite — cross-dock & same-day dispatch for hospitality, premium food-service and retail.

Market context & source reconciliation ▼ Expand▲ Collapse
  • Fewer than 1,000 cold trucks against an estimated need of 25,000 for 11M+ tonnes of perishables annually (to be validated).
  • A 2023 assessment sizes a $5.9B cumulative capex deployment opportunity by 2030 across F&V, dairy, fish and meat.
  • Commercial models estimate ~150,000 national pallet positions (2025) → ~270,000 by 2031.

⚠ Reconciliation note: the $5.9B figure is cumulative capex (implying 1.5–2.4M positions at $2,500–4,000/position) — 10–16× the estimated installed base. The two sources measure different things and must not be cited interchangeably; both require independent validation before investor use.

02 · Commercial Model

Anchor-led, service-priced

Signed LOIs for ≥40% of capacity before construction; 40–60% committed before commissioning. A full pricing architecture — not a single storage rate.

🐔Food distributors & importers

Frozen protein, dairy, ingredients — port receipt, storage, stock rotation, scheduled delivery.

🍕QSR & pizza chains

Central inventory, pick/pack, JIT branch replenishment of cheese, dough, chicken, sauces.

🛒Supermarkets & retail

Shared or dedicated storage, branch replenishment, live stock visibility.

🏨Hotels, restaurants, caterers

Small frequent deliveries, quality-controlled dispatch, reduced back-of-house freezer needs.

🏭Food processors

Dedicated chambers, staging, blast-freeze capability in later phases.

💊Pharma & laboratories Year 1

GDP-aligned validated +2–8°C and frozen zones designed in from day one — validated before any pharma stock is accepted (Gate 2).

🌡️Temperature bands

Chilled · 0 to 5°CFrozen · −15 to −18°CDeep-frozen · −22 to −25°CPharma · +2–8°C validatedControlled ambient

💳Pricing architecture

  • Pallet / m³ per day & per month; dedicated-room contracts
  • In-out handling, pick/pack, cross-dock fees
  • Delivery by route, stop, pallet, weight, SLA
  • Monitoring & reporting premium (pharma); deep-frozen energy surcharge if needed

Indicative mature-flagship revenue mix

Working rate card ₦20,000–45,000/pallet/month (benchmarked vs €20–45 in Europe) · storage ~$0.3–1.1M/yr · total ~$3–5M/yr at maturity
Just-in-time replenishment — the pizza-chain example ▼ Expand▲ Collapse

A QSR customer stores imported cheese, chicken, dough and sauces centrally. The platform receives branch orders, calculates replenishment from agreed par levels and demand trends, generates picking lists, assigns routes, logs vehicle temperature and captures proof of delivery.

Commercial benefit: lower working capital at outlets, fewer stock-outs, less in-store spoilage, predictable deliveries.

03 · Operations & Rollout

Resilience-first, phased nationally

Pass/fail objectives are the commitments; pallet-position ranges are context.

Pallet-position ramp by phase

Midpoints of planning ranges · Launch → Lagos scale → National hubs → Integrated platform → Leadership

🔌Power & refrigeration

  • Primary supply from company-controlled generation (documented related-party terms)
  • Independent backup sized for critical refrigeration loads; automatic transfer & load sequencing
  • Thermal storage / PCM evaluated; solar + battery as supplemental resilience
  • N+1: compressors, condensers/evaporators, controls, power pathways, sensors

💻Technology platform

  • WMS + TMS + facility/energy management + B2B portal + finance module + analytics
  • Batch/lot/expiry, FIFO/FEFO, digital POD, automated tariff billing
  • AI progressively: demand forecasting, slotting, energy optimisation, predictive maintenance
  • Must work without AI — core flows reliable before optimisation
Phase detail — actions & pass/fail objectives ▼ Expand▲ Collapse
  • Launch (0–2): flagship + satellite; anchors; storage, port services, Lagos logistics. Pass: ≥60% occupancy & ≥99% temperature compliance by month 24.
  • Lagos scale (3–4): 2–4 facilities; 8,000–15,000 pp. Pass: flagship positive site EBITDA 2+ consecutive quarters; new-capacity revenue/pp ≥ flagship.
  • National hubs (5–7): Abuja + Port Harcourt; intercity corridors; 20,000–40,000 pp. Pass: lanes contribution-positive; national anchors signed before each hub.
  • Integrated platform (7–8): finance pilot, processing partnerships, M&A/JVs; 40,000–70,000 pp. Pass: credit losses within limits; group EBITDA margin ≥15%.
  • Leadership (9–10): strategic cities & corridors. Pass: largest Lagos formal multi-client capacity + lane revenue leadership.

Why the Y9–10 range was cut from 75–120K to 40–70K positions: the old range implied 28–44% of the entire projected 2031 formal market — contradicting the leadership-not-domination objective.

04 · Indicative Financial Profile

Ten-year directional view

Not a budget or forecast — bottom-up from flagship unit economics and the phase gates. Every figure is subordinate to Gate 1 rate-card validation. US$ millions.

Revenue & EBITDA trajectory vs cumulative capex

Range midpoints · cumulative 10-yr capex ≈ $150–250M
RevenueEBITDACumulative capex
YearPhaseSites / positionsRevenueEBITDACapex in year
1Launch (build)Apapa + VI under construction(0.5) pre-op8–10
2Launch1 hub + 1 satellite · 2,000–3,500 pp2–3.5(0.3)–0.52–3
3Base-case proofOccupancy ≥60–85%3–50.7–1.81–2
4Lagos scale2–4 facilities · 8,000–15,000 pp7–121.2–3.012–18
5Lagos scaleNetwork maturing12–192.5–5.510–15
6National hubs+ Abuja · 20,000–40,000 pp20–344–9.520–30
7National hubs+ Port Harcourt · corridors35–587–1520–30
8Integrated platformFinance pilot · 40,000–70,000 pp55–9511–2325–40
9LeadershipNational corridor coverage90–15518–3730–50
10Leadership40,000–70,000 pp + services135–22028–5230–50

🧱Stage 1 · Build

Indicative 75/25 developer/external split (placeholder pending independent land/power valuation). Sub-$10M flagship envelope.

📈Stage 2 · Expand

Project finance for later sites, equipment leasing, bank debt only against contracted cash flow, strategic/DFI equity. Conversations start Y3–4 — capex needs bite from Y5–6.

🏦Stage 3 · Finance

Inventory finance only after 12–18 months of reliable inventory/payment/insurance data. Ring-fenced: separate credit governance, collateral haircuts, controlled stock release.

Flagship unit economics — why storage rent isn't the engine ▼ Expand▲ Collapse
  • Working rate card: ₦20,000–45,000/pallet/month (~$13–30), benchmarked against €20–45 in Europe; pharma-validated and deep-frozen positions price at the top.
  • Storage alone: 2,000–3,500 positions × ~85% occupancy ≈ $0.3–1.1M/yr.
  • Mature flagship ~$3–5M/yr: ~20% rent, ~25% handling/pick-pack/VAS, ~55% reefer logistics.
  • At 25–40% EBITDA margin, simple payback on the sub-$10M envelope is ~5–8 years pre-financing — hence anchor LOIs and route density are gating conditions, not preferences.
  • $250–350M stretch run-rate requires ~70–80% of revenue from logistics/finance/services at scale; $1B EV needs roughly ≥$77M EBITDA at 13× or ≥$59M at 17×.
05 · Economic Impact

Secondary objectives — impact thesis

For land/power partners, prospective investors and DFIs. These follow from commercial success and never override base-case discipline.

🧀Import → local

Data-driven "import-to-local" dashboard identifies categories with volume, repeat demand and workable local supply: dairy, frozen vegetables, potato products, chicken, fish, prepared ingredients.

🌾Agriculture & affordability

Dependable off-take routes, quality preservation farm→processor→retail, less waste and fewer emergency purchases. Measured carefully: local sourcing wins only when quality, scale, energy and working capital are managed.

🤝Partner, don't rush

Become the preferred infrastructure and data partner for processors first — then decide: invest, JV, dedicated facilities, or finance third parties.

06 · Execution Controls

Five gates between ambition and capital

The "ice gates" of the rollout — each releases the next tranche of scope and spend.

1
Before construction

Related-party power terms documented · engineering complete · capex approved within sub-$10M envelope · signed anchor LOIs ≥40% of capacity.

2
Before commissioning

All cold rooms, power, monitoring, SOPs, insurance and training independently tested · pharma zones GDP-validated before any pharma stock.

3
Before second Lagos site

Flagship sustains temperature compliance, positive site contribution margin and target occupancy for 2+ consecutive quarters (~$3M+ revenue run-rate).

4
Before Abuja / Port Harcourt

National anchors committed · intercity lane economics proven · governance and maintenance systems mature.

5
Before inventory finance

12–18 months of reliable inventory, payment, insurance and operations data · separate credit committee functioning.

RiskImpactMitigation
Power interruptionProduct loss, claims, reputationControlled generation + N+1 + backup + thermal storage + tested contingencies
Refrigeration failureExcursions, spoilage, downtimePreventive maintenance, critical spares, remote monitoring, redundancy
Low utilisationWeak cash flowAnchor LOIs pre-build, multi-client model, phased capex
FX / import costsCapex escalationEarly procurement, FX contingency, local service capability
Customer concentrationRevenue vulnerabilitySegment diversification, credit limits, max-concentration policy
Port / road disruptionLate delivery, fuel costPort-adjacent staging, route planning, satellite hubs
Compliance failureFines, closure, pharma lossQMS, trained staff, SOPs, audits, calibrated sensors
Inventory-finance credit lossFinancial loss, disputesGate 5 · ring-fenced credit function · conservative underwriting
Aggressive expansionOver-leverageStage gates, site-level hurdle rates, independent investment review
Critical launch milestones — the Gate 1 checklist ▼ Expand▲ Collapse
  • Related-party power-supply terms documented (transfer pricing, commitments, outage protocol)
  • Site surveys, geotechnical, logistics-access and environmental assessment — both sites
  • Anchor LOI campaign executed (prospects identified, not yet approached) → ≥40% signed
  • Market validation: interviews, competitor capacity map, rate-card testing, market-size reconciliation, port-flow/route-density analysis
  • Concept & detailed engineering; all regulatory approvals
  • TCO-based procurement; WMS/TMS/monitoring/finance systems configured
  • Recruit & train; commission under load before accepting stock